Wildfires Forecast Performance (WFP) in Albania during the summer season 2017

Abstract: Albania is situated in the Balkan Peninsula and is characterized by a Mediterranean climate, with dry and warm or hot summers. Albania like other Mediterranean countries, is repeatedly threatened by wildfires resulting often insignificant economic and ecological losses, and occasionally threatening the human lives. Nowadays, the safeguarding process of human lives and properties from natural hazards comprises not only prevention but also protection and mitigation. The wildfire risk forecast is considered a mitigation measure, which helps to predict the probability of occurrence of wildfire within a closed area. National Center for Forecasting and Monitoring of Natural Hazards (NCFMNH), part of Institute of GeoSciences, Energy, Water and Environment of Albania was established in 2011. In the same year, the NCFMNH started delivering wildfire risk forecast over Albanian territory. Since 2016, the wildfires risk forecast is based on the results of the European Forest Fires Information System (EFFIS). The risk forecast is issued and disseminated in a daily basis to the General Directorate of Civil Emergencies, including wildfire occurrence probability (risk) by country’s administrative unit (prefecture). The study evaluates the accuracy of the forest-fire risk forecasts issued during the 2017 summer season, calculating and analyzing results of the Forest Fires Forecast Performance (FFFP) for each Prefecture, by season and by month. The study proved high accuracy of the forecast for the High Level Risk, 59.2% during the season which varied from 55% in August to 70% in June and July. The forecast performance was considered as GOOD for June and VERY GOOD for July and August. The accuracy of the forecast for theModerate Level Risk was low,37.7% during the season which varied from 14% in June to 42% and 45% respectively in July and August. Hence the forecast performance was considered as BAD performance for June and GOOD for the July and August. The performance of the forecastfor the Low Level of Risk was VERY GOOD for the season varying from GOOD in June and August to VERY GOOD for July. The performance of the forecast for the Low and Very Low Levelsof Risk was VERY GOOD as VERY GOOD for the season varying from GOOD in July to VERY GOOD in June and August.